Be Very Careful

April 21, 2007 | By Jason Sapp | Discuss

The NFL Draft is almost upon us.  My self-proclaimed ‘holiday’ means that every day at work, for the next two weeks, it will be putting the final touches on mock drafts, speculating on who goes where and why each team is either a sucker or a genius when it comes to this annual festival of football.  Every year, I watch the same teams make the same mistakes and never understand why they can’t get anywhere.  Every year, I watch the same teams build their teams up, drafting the best talent, not name, and go on to win Super Bowls.  Every year, when this day comes up and teams are gearing toward the next season, only one thing comes to mind, one thing I wish I could say to every team:

Be very, very careful…think before you act…

The draft has always been the foundation for any team.  It is the one chance to improve upon your roster with the best that college football has to offer and the one chance to fix the mistakes from last year. 

Mistakes can be corrected, but why not start before the problem even creeps onto the scene.  Each year, I watch players like Chris Henry of the Bengals and Pac-Man Jones of the Titans and wonder how these players, absolute scumbags, get jobs, while hard-working, mild-mannered athletes are turned down time and time again.  I watch these gifted, but horribly marred players taken by these poor, unsuspecting teams, desperate for a shot in the arm, only to later hear how their player is ‘surrounded by shots at a downtown night club’ or ‘arrested for his 12th DUI this week’.  Take a minute, actually research your player, think about the long-term effects.  Is it really worth paying $20 million to a guy who will only find ways to embarrass your program rather than help it?

Ok, that rant being over, now let’s focus on this year’s draft, loaded with talent, but not necessarily names.  Last year was the most star-studded draft in recent history, but this one offers some of the premier talent in memory.  For example, in the QB position, the top three talents are JaMarcus Russell (LSU), Brady Quinn (Notre Dame) and Drew Stanton (Michigan State).  Russell is a raw athlete with a cannon for an arm, and competed in arguably the best conference in football in the SEC…but…is he the answer? 

For Oakland, yes, but so was Marques Tuiasosopo, drafted years ago with the idea that he was the guy when Rich Gannon retired…and when Kerry Collins left…and when Aaron Brooks fell on his face…now he’s gone and the Raiders are left with Andrew Walter (one of the most ridiculed QBs in years), Josh Booty (who hasn’t played football in 4 years) and probably either Jeff George or Bobby Hoying next on the horizon.  Bottom line, the Raiders need a QB, and HAD the guy sitting there two years in a row with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Leinart, two California guys…oops…now the Silver and Black are being pressured into taking a QB who is good, but has that …but… factor to him.  Russell will be good, but is Oakland the best place for him to develop?  Sure, the Raiders love the deep game, but will they still be able to stick to their roots, especially if Randy Moss is leaving town and Jerry Porter is forever disgruntled?  Ronald Curry is a great player, but the Raiders need a playmaker wide receiver.  Badly.

So, let’s say the Raiders take Russell.  Who’s the next QB to go?  Brady Quinn seems the most polished of the group, but even he isn’t safe from questioning.  He excelled in Charlie Weiss’ system, which is close to a pro system as you’re going to get in college.  What does that say about his transition to the NFL?  The following players have been QBs at ND, and played in the NFL, over the past few years: Rick Mirer, Ron Powlus, Jarious Jackson, Arnaz Battle, Carlyle Holliday.  A stellar list, most of which later became wide receivers (of course, we cannot overlook Powlus’ stellar 2000 season with the Eagles, in which he ousted Doug Pederson and Travis Brown for the third string position). 

Quinn has the tools and the talent to be successful…with the right team.  That’s the key element that many forget when it comes to drafting.  Sure, any name looks great on paper, but does the player actually fit the system that he’s being selected to?  Quinn is projected to go to Cleveland or Minnesota, both of which run similar offenses that Quinn knows.  Both teams are also horrible and Quinn will most likely be pressed into duty sooner rather than later.  Something tells me Charlie Frye or Tarvaris Jackson won’t make a whole season.

Who comes after the Big Two?  Michigan State’s Drew Stanton is said to be a solid competitor who could never produce because of the team he played for.  Michigan State was awful last season, and while they pushed Notre Dame to the limit, and yes, we all remember the epic game against Michigan in triple overtime, but they also found ways to lose to Illinois and Indiana, two of the worst.  Stanton has a good arm, but scrambles a lot and often makes poor decisions.  This doesn’t mean he’s horrible on a level with Cade McNown, it’s just that Stanton is one of those be careful-type of players to take.  You have to wonder if Detroit maybe thinks about him in the second round, providing they don’t take a chance on Quinn or Russell, should either fall to them…

There are quite a number of underrated QBs, most of which will find themselves drafted late this year.  Most of these quarterbacks are relative unknowns, but several should make a roster this season.  Trent Edwards of Stanford and John Beck of BYU will easily be first-day picks, possibly falling the Eagles, should they be interested (how can Andy not look at a BYU guy?).  Edwards has taken a pounding over his career in the Pac-10, but he is tough and will no doubt make someone’s team next season.  Beck, meanwhile, is a prototypical QB who played in one of the most decorated QB colleges in the country and took the Cougars back to national prominence this season, along with finishing second all-time in passing behind, yes another former Eagle, Ty Detmer. 

One other player to add to the list of relative unknowns is Houston’s Kevin Kolb, a 6-3, rocket-armed QB who has been one of the best in the nation that few know about.  Kolb has competed against many of the top schools and has done quite well for himself and for a program whose last great QB was a former Heisman winner, Andre Ware.  Kolb has been very impressive over his career in Conference USA and will no doubt make someone’s roster next season.

Who are the question marks?  Nebraska’s Zac Taylor, Boise State’s Jared Zabransky, Akron’s Luke Getsy, Pittsburgh’s Tyler Palko, UTEP’s Jordan Palmer, East Carolina’s James Pinkney and Nevada’s Jeff Rowe were all effective quarterbacks in college, but may struggle on the next level.  Palko is an interesting case, a fiery competitor who took a beating at Pitt, but found ways to win for Dave Wannstedt (a challenge in and of itself).  Palmer started great, but UTEP’s magical season of a few years ago was simply a one-year wonder and teams began to pick up on his mechanics.  He is Carson’s brother, so someone will take a chance on him.  Zabransky and Rowe could be considered ‘products of the system’, especially Rowe in the bizarre ‘Pistol offense’ that Nevada uses.  Both he and Zabransky are tough, well-tested veterans of the game, and Zabransky has a much better chance than his predecessor, Ryan Dinwiddie, at cracking an NFL roster. 

Of this list, it’s actually Taylor who many consider to be a mid-round choice.  He is a West Coast product, a Bill Callahan-coached QB and, like Quinn, is getting his share of attention, due to his NFL coaching connections.  Taylor has a chance in the league.  He is the only legitimate Nebraska QB to come out in the past few years and, with his size and surprisingly good arm, could land a third spot for a team in need.

So who do the Birds maybe look at, if they really want someone?  Beck seems to be a good possibility, maybe Taylor as well.  The longer the guy has played the position, the better.  Donovan was a longtime starter at Syracuse, and both Taylor and Beck are similar in that regard.  Beck has the slight advantage due to size and a better rate of success.  Edwards will most likely end up on the West Coast and Kolb could find himself staying in Texas.  All of these players need to be in the right system, so any QB who knows the West Coast will surely have a legitimate chance with the Eagles. 

Oh, by the way, those two quarterbacks who played in the National Championship Game, Florida’s Chris Leak and Ohio State’s Troy Smith, are also in this draft.  Don’t you find it strange that the Heisman Trophy Winner is not even being mentioned in the first round of the draft?  Oh, how times change…

Jason Sapp can be reached at jsapp@phillypurge.com