The Eagles have devised their own version of "Moneyball"

April 12, 2006 | By Dennis Bakay | Discuss

One night while reading an Eagles message board it dawned on me why the Eagles don’t “place value” on certain positions, for instance the linebacker position. It isn’t because they’re cheap or that they’re foolish, evil power mongers, or even indignant to the fans, despite their cries for help at certain positions. It’s because they have created their version “Moneyball.” Yes, Banner and Lurie (as well as Belichick and Polian) are the NFL’s answer to Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane, who created Moneyball.

Here is a brief overview of Moneyball for those of you who don’t know about it or understand it. Basically statistics are compiled for every player in the league. There isn’t actual value placed on the athlete’s actual strength, rather it’s entirely placed on computer numbers. Billy Beane based his drafting on two key statistics; on-base percentage and slugging percentage. These two stats combined actually created a new statistical category called OPS (on-base slugging). Beane felt that power was an asset that could be developed over time. This is antithetical to intangibles like the ability to get on base and patience that can’t be developed in Beane’s theory. So, there’s a brief overview on Moneyball.

If you study the rosters of the Eagles since 2000-when Reid began to mark his imprint on the franchise you’ll notice similar things. They spread the ball around in terms of carries and catches. Tackles are also spread around. Their system is perfect for plugging in players who have a middle of the road value in the NFL when it comes to running backs, wide receivers, and linebackers. These are positions they habitually “don’t place a lot of value in.” As we’ve often heard over and over and over again. And, it has worked. The have won by simply outscoring their opponents and holding them out of the endzone. It’s worked wonderfully. For this piece, we’ll focus on their playoff teams from 2000-2004.

Their offense has improved since the 2000 season. Scoring since 2000:

2000-21 points/game
2001-20 points/game
2002-25 points/game
2003-25 points/game
*2004-26 points/game (games 1-12)

*They actually scored 28 points per game in 2004 if you discount the last 4 games when they scored just 46 points combined, one less than their 47 point victory against Green Bay in their 12th game!

Looking at their defense, it has remained a constant as well. Again, they may not dominate the league in rushing or passing statistics, but they are usually among the leaders in red zone defense. This is paramount to Jim Johnson’s defense. Defensive scoring since 2000:

2000-15 points/game
2001-13 points/game
2002-14 points/game
2003-19 points/game
*2004-16 points/game

*Again, in 2004 it was skewed by the last two games that were played like preseason games. They surrendered 58 points in those two contests pushing their points/game total from 14 per game to 16 per game.

They managed to keep this team competitive by locking down certain positions, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines, and defensive backfield. Anybody who knows anything about winning football will tell you games are won with a quarterback and good line play on both sides of the ball. Look at all Super Bowl teams and usually 3 (with the exception of a few teams like the Ravens) of those elements are constant. Some teams are willing to sacrifice something in order to be stronger at one thing. The Buccaneers sacrificed their offense in order to be strong at every defensive position. The St. Louis Rams sacrificed strength at certain positions on defense to have a stellar offense. The Ravens didn’t have a good quarterback or receivers but had arguably the greatest defense ever. The New England Patriots are as close to anything to the great dynasties of the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys as you’ll see, in which a team is strong at everything; quarterback, line play, receivers, running game (except in their 2nd championship run), and special teams. The Patriots did it without a decisive number one, but they still had a strong group of receivers. The Eagles clearly have lacked that with the exception of TO.

This has been the main point of contention with the fans in that the Eagles have always lacked a playmaker in the passing game, which doesn’t make sense considering they pass the ball more than any other team in the league. That’s a fact. Why would you not at least have a receiving system like the Patriots employ when you can rely on 3 #2 two type receivers if you’re unwilling to keep a star around? Reports are that they are hot after Javon Walker. This would be a godsend, as he would give the Eagles a #1 target, thus making Reggie Brown their #2, Gaffney their #3, and Pinkston would thrive as a #4 deep threat, in a role when he doesn’t have to shoulder much of the load.

And, then there’s Brian Westbrook who is a dynamic player (when healthy of course). This is again the genius of the Eagles. They have one of the ultimate weapons in Brian Westbrook. He is a lighter version of Marshall Faulk and they love it because he doesn’t carry the ball enough to warrant Edgerrin James money. Again, it goes back to their “spread it around” approach. This is what their Moneyball philosophy is predicated upon. Fans can cry all they want for a player in the draft like Lendale White, but it really makes no sense for this team. Not only will he not be utilized, but he’ll be a high draft pick in a draft that is loaded with linemen, which is what the Eagles need. Super Bowls are won with a quarterback, defensive line, and offensive line. I repeat Super Bowls are won with a quarterback, defensive line, and offensive line.

The Eagles have their own hierarchy of needs, and my illustration is analogous to Maslow’s pyramid. By looking at just what they pay starters here is the breakdown. Keep in mind these are cap numbers for starters at each grouping (i.e. Brown, Pinkston, L.J. Smith, and Westbrook for receivers and running backs). I also will discount the kicker and punter, as we’ll focus on the main groups.

*Cap figures referenced from http://www.geocities.com/eaglescap

So as you can see they place the biggest emphasis on the big 3 of quarterback and both lines. Defensive backs aren’t far behind as it’s imperative to shut down the pass. This works in conjunction with having great line play, especially an effective pass rush. Thus, Howard and Kearse are among the highest paid players on the team as they have cap charges of 6.2 and 7.7 million respectively.

I am not a clairvoyant; otherwise I’d be day trading for a living. However, it seems awfully likely the Eagles will either trade up for Haloti Ngata, Broderick Bunkley, or stay put and draft Winston Justice. Either three of these players would give the Eagles a stud at defensive tackle or the left tackle position. Personally, I’ve been on the bandwagon of the big guy from Oregon since the Eagles were a 4-8 team 4 1/2 months ago. He would give them that run stuffer and huge presence in the middle that stokes up memories of one Jerome Brown. A player like he can make everyone on the defensive line better thus improving the pass defense and linebacker play. He’s akin to the quarterback but on defense. And, in the Eagles’ Moneyball system, that’s exactly what their system needs.

Contact Dennis Bakay at phillysports@earthlink.net