The Weekend's Don't Miss

May 1 , 2007 | By Chris White | Discuss

This weekend marks the beginning of the Triple Crown events, the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby.  We all know you are going to catch the race on TV, and there are a good number of you that will actually head out to your local Turf Club or racetrack to plop down a few wagers, knock back a couple of cold ones, and celebrate one of the truly great events in American sport.

Not sure who to play on Saturday?  Not even sure who’s running?  No problem.  At PhillyPurge.com we’re here to help.

This year like many in recent years, you are looking at twenty horses heading into the starting gate.  With that many hooves thundering past the crowd, solving this puzzle is nearly impossible.

Here’s my take on the major contenders.  Keep in mind, this was prepared prior to post positions being drawn.  The inside rail, or the very far outside gates could hinder the horse’s probability to win…

Horse/Rider/Trainer

Hard Spun (Mario Pino/Larry Jones):  Hard Spun is our local Philly horse, and although he isn’t as Stakes tested as others in this field, he’s amassed a mark of five wins in six starts.  His most recent effort was a victory by nearly 4 lengths at Turfway Park in the Lanes End Grade II stakes race on March 24th.  His speed figures have improved each time out, and although his rider Mario Pino isn’t among the nation’s elite, neither was Steward Elliot when he took us and Smarty Jones for a great ride three years ago.  I put Hard Spun in the same groups as a few others, and will back him on my win ticket due to his probable nice price at post time, and a sizzling workout on Monday.  Record to date (6-5-0-0)

Street Sense (Calvin Borel/Carl Nafzger):  Street Sense was last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile winner by ten lengths.  While that is an outstanding feat, it’s also a curse.  No horse has ever won that coveted title and gone on to win the Derby.  As a three year old, Street Sense won a hard fought Tampa Bay Derby in mid-march, and lost by a nose at Keeneland a month later, in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes.  Borel like Pino, is not one of the country’s top flight riders, but also like Pino, has been his horse’s only jockey.  I like Street Sense because he likes to stay just off the pace.  In a race like the Derby, that is a good spot to try to attain.  Record to date (7-3-2-2)

Circular Quay (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher):  Arguably, the number one jockey/trainer combination in America today.  Velazquez could have ridden any number of Pletcher’s horses, and he ends up on Circular Quay.  To me, that is as much a telltale sign as anything you’ll find on paper.  This horse has taken a non-traditional route to Saturday’s Derby, by not racing since March 10th.  Pletcher felt his horse was ready, and didn’t need any additional seasoning for this race.  That’s good enough for me.  What isn’t is his running style here  He comes from farther off the pace, and with a field of twenty, that’s a lot of traffic to navigate, but if anyone can do its JV.  Record to date (7-4-2-0)

Curlin (Robby Albarado/Steven Assmussen):  For those that don’t follow racing closely, all Steve Assmussen does is win.  He runs a national operation, and has an outstanding win rate.  He hasn’t reached the upper echelon of other more noted trainers, but this could be his breakout horse.  Curlin’s big knock is that he didn’t race as a two year old.  No Derby winner has won since 1882 (no, it isn’t a typo) without racing as a baby.  If you can get past that, he has merely won all three 2007 starts, two of them in Graded Stakes company by a combined 28 ½ lengths!  He has the WOW factor Simon Cowell refers to on American Idol.  He will most likely be the post time favorite, and that, along with his shallow seasoning will cause me to pass.  It wouldn’t surprise me however if he runs the rest of the field out of their shoes Saturday though.  Record to date (3-3-0-0)

A few others to consider…
Scat Daddy ridden by one of my favorite jockeys Edgar Prado, has run eight races lifetime.  Seven of them were Graded stakes, and he comes off of back-to-back stakes wins in Florida at Gulfstream.  While his resume, rider, and trainer (another of Todd Pletcher’s sick six horses entered) are excellent, he’s the anti-Curlin.  No WOW factor, just a solid racehorse who can win.  (8-5-1-1)

Nobiz Like Showbiz is trained by Barclay Tagg, the trainer of Derby winning Funny Cide a few years back.  He has won four of six lifetime races, and to me is the mirror runner of Scat Daddy.  Hangs close to the pace, has the heart to win, I just don’t think he’s fast enough for this situation.  (6-4-1-1)

Any Given Saturday is probably my favorite of these honorable mentions.  Garrett Gomez is just about as good as they get, and AGS is another Todd Pletcher horse.  He has two races with 100 or better Beyer figures (which increases his WOW), and has never finished farther out then 3 ¾ lengths in any of his six starts.  He has also been on a very consistent timetable leading up to Saturday.  (6-3-2-1)

I merely mentioned seven of the twenty running Saturday.  Again, with this many horses breaking from the gate, anything is possible.  The only guarantee you get is that by either watching, or plopping down a substantial investment, there is nothing in American sport as exciting as seeing those gates swing open, and the beauty, grace, and power of these wonderful animals thundering by.

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