Sizing up the rest: "A look at the NL Central and West"

March 26, 2007 | By Chris White | Discuss

The more I study the rest of the National League, the more one thing becomes apparent. The Philadelphia Phillies I’d say have a terrific chance right now at making the playoffs. They are in line to seriously contend for the East pennant, and they are probably better then anyone outside of the East. With that said, let’s see if any of this logic holds water come All-Star break.

Order of Finish with (wins)…

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals (87): Apparently not a lot is expected from last year’s World Champs. They start off the season basically ignored in baseball’s Power Rankings, and they really only lost Jeff Suppan.

The lineup has a very similar look to the one that shocked the Detroit Tigers (yeah, I bet a few of you have already forgotten Detroit was in the Fall Classic already, right?). Injury prone Rolen and Edmonds back up baseball’s best hitter, with some tough outs at the bottom, when the lineup turns over. Speaking of Rolen and Edmonds, how many games combined do you think they will miss? I’ll bet ya a beer its somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 between them. Who plays then?

The strength of Tony LaRussa’s pitching staff is once again his bullpen. While Chris Carpenter is a legitimate ace, and I like where Kip Wells has ended up,the rest of the starters are question marks. Shit, anytime you are contemplating making Brandon “I throw hard and straight down the middle” Looper a starter, you’ve got issues.

Potential Lineup:
David Eckstein SS
Chris Duncan LF
Albert Pujols 1B
Scott Rolen 3B
Jim Edmonds CF
Juan Encarnacion RF
Adam Kennedy 2B
Yadier Molina C

Rotation:
Carpenter
Wells
Reyes
Wainwright
Looper

Houston Astros (86): Can we just put aside the Roger Clemens stuff now? I don’t care if he comes back, I don’t care where he goes, I don’t care if he wants to stay home and play catch with his kids. I just grow more and more annoyed at his Favre-ish inability to make a decision. Shit or get off the pot already, sheeeeesh.

The killer B’s, led by 51 year-old Craig Biggio who tops off the lineup, with “Bigs” again at home at Second. Berkman, Lee, and Ensberg is a very nice middle of the lineup, while I continue to scratch my head at how Brad Ausmus is still receiving a check.

The “I” word next. IF Roy Oswalt can make all of his starts, he’s a 20-game winner. Jenning is okay, I think Wandy Rodriguez has a live arm, and the Astros pen is also full of hard throwers. I don’t think Roy can stay on the mound long enough though.

Where’s that Clemens again?

Potential Lineup:
Craig Biggio 2B
Chris Burke CF
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Morgan Ensberg 3B
Luke Scott RF
Adam Everett SS
Brad Ausmus C

Staff:
Oswalt
Jennings
Williams
Rodriguez
Nieve

Milwaukee Brewers (81): Each year it seems the Brewers make a few small strides towards competitiveness. This season they improve slightly through seasoning.

Rickie Weeks is a nice player, but when Johnny Estrada is projected to bat that early in the lineup the red flags should be waiving. Fielder is nearly ‘stud’ status, while Hall through Koskie are average players at best. One big bat amongst a pack of nothing specials.

Ben Sheets as the number one starter again this year? Gimmie a break. Milwaukee and Chicago should do a Sheets/Capuano trade for Prior/Woods. Neither team has gotten anything of merit from each set of arms, so why not start fresh with somebody else’s broken stuff. This pitching staff scares nobody, but is still better then many in the NL.

The average lineup and the average staff just might get the Brewers to .500, which for them is better then average.

Potential Lineup:
Rickie Weeks 2B
Johnny Estrada C
Prince Fielder 1B
Bill Hall CF
Geoff Jenkins LF
Corey C. Hart RF
Corey Koskie 3B
J.J. Hardy SS

The Staff:
Sheets
Capuano
Bush
Suppan
Vargas

Chicago Cubs (80): The lovable losers said goodbye to Dusty Baker after last season, and welcomed in Sweet Lou Pinella. Look for this to be Pinella’s last stint in baseball. What does that mean to his new employers? I haven’t a clue, but I wouldn’t expect any miracles, that’s for sure.

The addition of potential 40 home run man Alfonso Soriano was a nice add obviously, and last year Mark DeRosa proved he could hit with anyone, and field just about anywhere. I’m really intrigued as to why Soriano didn’t join the squad with the anticipation of playing 2B again though. DeRosa can play the outfield, and his ego is nowhere the size of young Alfonso’s. Oh well.

On paper the Cubbies lineup looks pretty decent, at least halfway through. Michael Barrett backing up Aramis Ramirez doesn’t look like much protection, although they do have excellent speed in Jacque Jones.

The once proud Chicago staff is a mess though. Once you get past Carlos Zambrano, a legitimate Cy Young candidate, you’ve got too much mediocrity, age, and DL potential. Unless Pinella can find a few of the young arm types he had in Tampa, look for the Bears to be making the Chicago Tribune headlines by early August.

Potential Lineup:
Alfonso Soriano CF
Mark DeRosa 2B
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Michael Barrett C
Jacque Jones RF
Matt Murton LF
Cesar Izturis SS

Rotation:
Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marquis
Prior

Cincinnati Redstockings (77): Last year I thought they had a better shot to stay in the race longer then I do this year. The lineup is well balanced if anything, and defensively they may have gotten a tad bit better with Alex Gonzalez coming over from the BoSox. Look for catcher David Ross to potentially have 30 dingers this year, which would provide a nice spark from behind the plate. A good side beer bet would be if Griffey can make it to the All-Star break without missing any substantial time. Could lose that bet by the second game however.

Pitching has been, and will continue to be the Reds' Achilles heel this year. A decent, if perhaps overrated top two in Arroyo and Harang; the rest are retreads who better be able to provide innings if not quality.

Potential Lineup:
Ryan Freel CF
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Adam Dunn LF
David Ross C
Brandon Phillips 2B
Alex Gonzalez SS

Staff:
Arroyo
Harang
Milton
Lohse
Ramirez

Pittsburgh Pirates (72): Where have you gone Willie Stargell? The Pirates have been in their new stadium for a couple of years now, and all that spending has resulted in absolutely nothing in the win column. Look for more of the same this year, as Pittsburgh could be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2007.

Potential Lineup: Chris Duffy’s strong 06’ .317 OBP is a perfect example of Pittsburgh’s ineptitude. The left side of the field is Pittsburgh’s strength though, with the scrappy Jack Wilson at SS, the vastly improved Freddy Sanchez at Third, and their proven All-Star Jason Bay in left. This year the Bucs added Adam LaRoche from the Braves. LaRoche was adequate in the Atlanta lineup, but may suffer somewhat with this weaker group. I’d be surprised if Nady, Paulino, and Castillo all survive a full season here as well. These guys just aren’t that good, but they are cheap.

Speaking of cheap, the starting rotation is just that. Zach Duke has a nice future in front of him, if he can get a one way ticket to "AnywhereElse, USA". The rest of the staff doesn’t have the stuff to lock down opponents, which is what they will need to do with the three runs a game 1-8 will provide. I suggest they all take extra hitting before the season starts.

Potential Lineup:
Chris Duffy CF
Jack Wilson SS
Freddy Sanchez 3B
Jason Bay LF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Xavier Nady RF
Ronny Paulino C
Jose Castillo 2B

Rotation:
Duke
Snell
Maholm
Armas
Gorzelanny

NL West

San Diego Padres (87): Best player on this team? How about Adrian Gonzalez. A young kid who should probably be hitting in front of Brian Giles instead of behind him, he’s the most talented bat in that lineup. San Diego also thought enough of another youngster Kevin Kouzmanoff to trade Josh Barfield. The addition of Marcus Giles and Kouzmanoff for Barfield is an upgrade however, and just might be the difference.

The pitching is another interesting story in San Diego. Jake Peavy was actually kept by some fantasy guys this year, but I don’t see it. He needs to improve off of last year, or this team goes from contender to pretender. Chris Young has got some of the best stuff in the game, and should learn a ton from the aging Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Forget about David Wells, he won’t make it past the buffet long enough to contribute, plus he’s old and now has diabetes. They need another good arm, but there’s just not enough talent to go around.

Still though, they got a nice mix of young and old, and will be able to fly under the radar for a good portion of the season. I think they are just good enough to win another mediocre NL division.

Potential Lineup:
Marcus Giles 2B
Termel Sledge LF
Brian Giles RF
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Khalil Greene SS
Mike Cameron CF
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Josh Bard C

Staff:
Peavy
Young
Maddux
Hensley
Wells

Arizona Diamondbacks (85): This is an exciting team. They’ve put together a young group on the field in front of two solid starters, and two innings eaters.

Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy on the corners are stars in the making, while both Hudson and Drew, the middle infielders have some pop. The outfield is very intriguing. Eric Byrnes plays over his ability, and youngsters Chris Young and Carlos Quentin in center and right have people excited too. Not a power hitting lineup, but one that will use the gaps and stay busy on the base paths.

Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson are as good a 1-2 as you’ll find in the NL. Expect a combined 23-23 type mark from Hernandez and Davis. That #5 starter could be a problem, but other then a handful of clubs, that’s par for the course.

Potential Lineup:
Chris Young CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Chad Tracy 3B
Eric Byrnes LF
Conor Jackson 1B
Carlos Quentin RF
Stephen Drew SS
Chris Snyder C

Staff:
Webb
Johnson
Hernandez
Davis
Owings

Los Angeles Dodgers (84): The Dodgers were active in the off season, adding Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, Jason Schmidt, and Randy Wolf. They also let go of some talent as well, but the long and short of it is probably a similar result with different faces.

Pierre and Furcal is a great way to kick off the lineup. Nomar and Kent, both well on the south side of long careers are solid when healthy. I’m not sure what Luis Gonzalez has left in the tank, and the rest of the lineup is weak.

The Dodgers have always been about pitching however, and while they don’t really have a legitimate #1 starter, they could have a couple of twos, and a bunch of question marks. Penny at best is inconsistent. Randy Wolf can’t be counted on, and the 5th starter is either Hendrickson or Kuo. Yeah, I don’t know them either, and there’s a great chance both start a ton of games with the other guy’s penchant for staying healthy.

Other than Furcal and Lowe, there’s not much on this team worth talking about. They’ve got a lot of professionals on that roster, but it’s an aging team that at least on paper doesn’t look like it fits together quite right.

Potential Lineup:
Juan Pierre CF
Rafael Furcal SS
Nomar Garciaparra 1B
Jeff Kent 2B
Luis Gonzalez LF
Andre Either RF
Wilson Betemit 3B
Russell Martin C

Rotation:
Schmidt
Lowe
Penny
Wolf
Hendrickson

San Francisco Giants (80): Cool uniforms,. Great tradition, and an idiot. That’s what I think about when the Giants come to mind. So much for going in a new direction, and getting younger, things you heard a lot about late last year when the subject of Mr. HGH was the hot topic. Every starter in the lineup is in their 30’s, most well into that bracket, so you know what you get with them. The good news is new skipper Bruce Bochy. I think he’s a solid manager, and should get the most out of those aging legs.

On the subject of Bonds, I am really hoping he doesn’t come close to Aaron this year, which for all intent is his last. I predict either injury, missed AB’s due to age, or just the fact that nobody will pitch to him will keep him from baseball’s most prestigious mark. When I say won’t pitch to him don’t get me wrong. I don’t think he’s nearly as dangerous as he once was. This is more a plea for baseball’s pitchers to nail him instead of walking or giving him anything to drive deep. The record is really up to them, and I’m very interested to see if they respond to their call of duty.

Picking up Barry Zito was a sweet deal for them. He’s still young, didn’t have to uproot himself from his old digs, and has been very reliable. Look for his ERA, which wasn’t bad in the American League year to drop to the mid to low 3.00’s in his first full season in the Senior League. The rest of the staff is intriguing, with hard throwing Matt Cain at the #2 spot, the declining Morris and potentially emerging Lowry at #3 and #4. This club is also in need of somebody to pick up the ball on that 5th day, another bad sign. In games they are still in late, Armando Benitez is so reliable now that no other teams will even take him.

Potential Lineup:
Dave Roberts CF
Omar Vizquel SS
Randy Winn RF
Barry Bonds LF
Rich Aurilia 1B
Ray Durham 2B
Pedro Feliz 3B
Bengie Molina C

Staff:
Zito
Cain
Morris
Lowry
Ortiz

Colorado Rockies (78): Okay I’m going to just come out and say it. Was Helton juicing all those years? Tremendous numbers up until two years ago, when the heat starting falling on the steroid issue. I should know this, because I like the guy and had him on my fantasy teams for years, but there’s a big decline at precisely the wrong time. Injury and sickness certainly could be the culprit, I’m just uneasy with the timeframe.

Now on the team. Nice youth, a solid lineup, zero pitching. Another beer bet coming your way. The Rockies' pitching gives up at least 20 runs at some point this season. Back to the starters…

I think Helton rebounds to improve on last year’s numbers. Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Brad Hawpe are all hitting their peaks. There is no way Kaz Matsui is better then Clint Barmes, who lost his SS job to rookie Troy Tulowitzki. With Barmes switching over to the right side, the young infield just gets better.

The starting pitching can’t keep up its end of the bargain though, and frankly never will. No stud hurler is going to sacrifice his numbers to play in Coors Field, unless they are ‘has-beens’ or ‘never-weres’. Unfortunately, that’s what Colorado presents in 2007.

Potential Lineup:
W illy Taveras CF
Todd Helton 1B
Garrett Atkins 3B
Matt Holliday LF
Brad Hawpe RF
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Kaz Matsui 2B
Chris Iannetta C

The Staff:
Francis
Cook
Lopez
Lawrence
Kim

So there you have it. The division winners will shake out at the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, and San Diego Padres. The Wildcard will come down to Philadelphia, Houston, and Arizona, with the Fightins’ wrapping it up by week two in the NFL.

Next week, a summarized look at the American League, accompanied with my early playoff predictions and a possible parade down Broad Street…

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