The Triple Crown's Second Leg
May 18 , 2007
| By Chris White
| 
Discuss
Street Sense came from nearly 20 lengths off the pace to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby just under two weeks ago, and looks to keep the dream of a Triple Crown alive this Saturday in Baltimore, Maryland at Pimlico.
Before I get into my selections for the week, let me first touch on the performance of Street Sense in Louisville. To most observers, including the typical transient fan the 1 ¼ mile trip by Street Sense was both expected and amazing. While winning from off the pace isn’t anything new to Street Sense, riding the rail around the racetrack to get there in the shortest distance still has even veteran horseplayers scratching their heads.
How come nobody else took to the rail? How come nobody else tried to cut Calvin Borel off when they heard him coming? Some even discount Street Sense’s performance, chalking it up as luck and the planets all aligning. Don’t into buy that for a minute, Street Sense just could be the next Triple Crown winner.
The field for the Preakness was drawn on Wednesday afternoon, with nine runners heading to post at 6:09 pm
Here’s how they break from the gate, with a quick analysis (Horse, Jockey, Trainer)
- Mint Slewlep (Alan Garcia/WR Bailes): Just doesn’t belong with these.
- Xchanger (Ramon Dominguez/Mark Shuman): Best race came last out over this racetrack in the Tesio Stakes, but only faced 5 others.
- Circular Quay (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher): Passed tiring horses in Derby to finish 6th (of 20). Not consistent, but could factor.
- Curlin (Robby Albarado/Steve Asmussen): Rallied for decent 3rd in Derby for first defeat. Could win this race, but again I’ll throw off my ticket.
- King of the Roxy (Garrett Gomez/Todd Pletcher): One poor effort over past six starts. Best new shooter in group.
- Flying First Class (Mark Guidry/D Wayne Lukas): His targeted races seemed a bit ambitious for his ability. May be the speedball that sets pace, may just suck.
- Hard Spun (Mario Pino/Larry Jones): Love this horse. He’s fast, he can last, and he’s back in his neck of the woods.
- Street Sense (Calvin Borel/Carl Nafzger): Derby winner won’t get as far away from leaders, but again should be steaming home late.
- CP West (Edgar Prado/Nick Zito): Love the rider. The horse is a tweener who only won against non-winners.
Of those nine, I think three have a legitimate shot to win the race. They also happen to be the top three finishers from the Derby. Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin.
How will the running of the Derby play into Saturday’s contest at Old Hilltop? In my opinion, very much so.
Look for Hard Spun to again either set, or sit just off the pace in the 1 3/16ths event. D Wayne Lukas’ Flying First Class has also displayed early ability, and may be winging it on the front end as well. Don’t expect Street Sense to spot the field twenty lengths this time around, but he won’t be in any rush to impress early. Circular Quay and Curlin will most likely also be in the back pack as they head into the backstretch.
As the horses race into the far turn, expect Flying First Class to fade. Hard Spun, who is fast turning into one of my favorite runners will sustain. The back of the pack will begin gaining ground on the leaders. This time however, Street Sense will have to go wide to make the front at the top of the stretch. Mario Pino, who is Hard Spun’s rider and a Maryland regular, will own the rail in the second leg. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
So the question is this. Can Hard Spun, who should have things his own way and with a track savvy veteran rider of Mario Pino be able to hold off the late charge of Street Sense?
I think he can, but I also think Street Sense is the real deal. Right now, you wouldn’t think to mention him in the same company as other recent Derby winners, who won the first two legs, or perhaps all three Triple Crown events (the last 1978 with Affirmed). After Saturday, you may just find yourself whispering Affirmed and Alydar, after what promises to be another weekend can’t miss at Pimlico.
Whitey’s Trifecta Ticket
Win: Street Sense
Place: Hard Spun
Show: King of the Roxy
Bored? Stop in for a mental cocktail at Whitey’s Pub!
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