Whitey's Weekly Word Week 11

November 13, 2008

By Chris White

Last week 9-5
YTD ATS: 70-71-2

Another solid week last week at 9-5, with my confidence slowly returning for the 2008 season. I was most surprised by Indy’s victory at Pittsburgh, and of course my beloved Jets laying the smack-down on the Rams. It wasn’t until midway through the 4th quarter that I was reassured they wouldn’t find a way to blow it. Typical Jets fan.

Super Bowl Selection Giants over Titans

Thursday Night Jets at New England (-3½): A bigger game for the Jets than New England, even though both are vying for the top spot in the AFC East. The Jets ultimately are going to have to get past their nemesis to take that next step, and they appear to be moving in the right direction. Their offensive line is gelling, Favre wasn’t asked to throw a ton last week, and they just pounded Thomas Jones all day. Can they do that against the Pat’s defensive front? I think they can… Jets 24 - Patriots 20.

Result- Jets 34 – 31 (OT). It just might be time for me to start drinking the Brett Favre Cool Aid. That was solid.

Sunday Denver at Atlanta (-5½): The Falcons have been one of the surprise teams this season, playing very well at home. Denver at 5-4 leads the AFC West, and rallied last week against the Browns on the road. 2nd road game in a row, but plenty of time to prepare for the Falcons. I love the over, and will lay the number. I'm not convinced Denver is back on their game... Falcons 34- Broncos 27.

Oakland at Miami (-10½): Both lousy Raider quarterbacks are listed on the injury report this week, which should do wonders for their 5 points a game average over the last three contests. Tough game with the double digit line, but Miami only really needs to put up about 16 points to lock it up with the number… Dolphins 21 - Raiders 7.

Baltimore at Giants (-6½): Giants have been the NFL’s best team this year, with their past several games no exception. Quality wins over Philly, Pittsburgh, and even the crummy Cowboys, with another tough opponent Sunday. Joe Flacco and his Ravens have averaged 11 points a game the past 3 over their offensive output average. Still though, I think the Giants are still pissed about the Super Bowl 35 beating and will use that as revenge to continue their impressive 10-1 ATS mark vs. teams with winning records… Giants 27 - Ravens 17.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8½): Two teams going in different directions. The Texans are without Matt Schaub again and come off a terrible effort last week, letting that offensive juggernaut Ravens team run it up on them. What will they do against an improving Colts team and Peyton Manning on the road? Didn't think so... Colts 36 - Texans 20.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3): Both teams off of solid games in week 10. Of course, the little difference between the two is Tennessee’s undefeated record up to this point. The Titans dominated Jacksonville early in the season, sacking David Garrard 7 times and creating a ruckus. At 4-5 it’s make or break time for Jacksonville, who have not been a great home team. Don’t like the game, but I’ll pick this week’s spot the place where the Titans loose the pressure of being ‘perfect’… Jaguars 22 - Titans 20.

Chicago at Green Bay (-4): Chicago has had Green Bay’s number at Lambau lately, winning four straight, while they’ve covered against their division rivals 5 of 6. Both teams wallowing in mediocrity, but I’ve noticed a slight improvement is the Bears road defense. I like defense. If Kyle Orton was a lock to play, I’d feel a lot better about this pick. Even without him though, I think Chicago keeps things dicey… Bears 20 - Packers 19.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (+9½): I really like Philadelphia this week. They are a good road team, off a tough loss, in a spot they need to win. They are going to dominate the line of scrimmage when Cincy has the ball, and thus eliminate any chance the Bengals have of seeing their 2nd win of the season… Eagles 34 - Bengals 14.

New Orleans at Kansas City (+5): Don’t look now, but it appears as if KC has found a quarterback. Tyler Thigpen is playing well, and (gasp) at 1-8 so are the Chiefs. Arrowhead is always a tough place for visitors, especially when teams outside the conference roll in. Throw in the fact that the Saints aren’t a great road team and still hurting without key players, and I think the Chiefs can upset as the home dog… Chiefs 28 - Saints 26.

Detroit at Carolina (-14): I think you may have a better shot at playing PowerBall than picking this game. Will the Lions win? No. A two-touchdown favorite though? Last week I backed the Lions and they got creamed at home. To expect a better effort on the road against that defense is nuts. I’ll do it! I think the Panthers look beyond Detroit and our Motown buddies grease the spread!… Panthers 26 - Lions 13.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-4): Tampa Bay has been just okay lately. Come to think of it, so have the Vikings. Adrian Peterson finally got on track last week, but he carried the ball about 45 times to get his yards. The home team is 8-1-1 ATS in the series, and I see the trend continuing. The Bucs defense in their own building dictate what, or what doesn’t happen to opposing offenses… Buccaneers 24 - Vikings 13.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-6): This is great. Trying to make an honest assessment out of a pair of 2-7 dogs. Actually, I think the pick is an easy one. I’ve graded St. Louis’ last three games as “F, D, and C”. Pretty good huh, looks like my old Stockton grades in Macroeconomics. I really like Singletary, and think if anyone can make a difference in that corporate culture, he’s the man… 49ers 31 - Rams 20.

Arizona at Seattle (+2½): The Seahawks are an impressive 7-1 vs. the NFC West lately, and 8-2 straight up at home in ten tries. While their defense is also slowly coming around, they might be without both their #1 and #2 quarterbacks Sunday. The Cardinals on the other hand are having their best season in a long time, and I don’t see them stumbling here, a spot they would have blown in the past… Cardinals 23 - Seahawks 13.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4½): The Chargers have all the offensive weapons an NFL team could ever want. Good quarterback, exceptional (if not heading toward the downside of his career) running back, when healthy the NFL’s best Tight End, and some very solid receivers. What they don’t have this year is Shawn Merriman, and that defense has not been the same. That isn’t a problem for Pittsburgh, who should show enough of their D to keep San Diego’s potent O in check. Give Big Ben a little time, and his receivers can be the key here… Steelers 26 - Chargers 20.

Dallas at Washington (+2½): Here’s a quick hitter for you… the underdog is 20-6 ATS the past, what’s that- ten years? It’s no secret the Cowboys are having a terrible season, and have also played poorly against Washington in general. With Romo back though, and at 5-4 this is a must win they can attain. The Skins might be without Clinton Portis, who is having an MVP type season… Cowboys 27 - Redskins 19.

Monday Night Cleveland at Buffalo (-4½): Tough game. Pros for the Browns include extra preparation time after their last debacle against Denver, and a 13-3 ATS mark against teams with winning records. Offensively they also seemed to respond to The Mighty Quinn in his first start. Pros for the Bills include an excellent home mark, and the ability to play well in big spots at home. Not much bigger than the Monday Night spotlight, even if they’ve dropped three in a row (to AFC East foes to boot). Don’t like the game, but I’ll take the Bills here. The way Cleveland has lost lately is very disconcerting… Bills 30 - Browns 20.

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